About Bo

Hope having time left till the bell rings, but you never know. So I try to create something which lasts. It should remember me, long after my ashes are spread into the Pacific Ocean.

The Scourge of God

We live in difficult times. The “China Virus”, as the American president likes to call the Corona Virus changes the world, our lives and our families.
Trump should not be worried, nor should Boris Johnson, the French President Marcon, nor the Netherlands, Thailand, Switzerland or Slovenia.
The “GHS”, the Global Health Security Index, which shows the preparedness of a country to fight this disease, puts the USA in first place, followed by the UK and the above listed countries. They are “Most Prepared”, followed by the remaining states of the world community, which are either “more prepared” or “least prepared”.
The Internet is providing an “arcgis” presentation, which records the development of the pandemia per country in real time. This seems to be a rather risky undertaking, as this presentation gives a ranking of the disease, which may not correspond to the actual situation.
Today, Sunday 29.3.2020, 17:00 MEZ, this combined presentation ( GHS and arcgis) shows the result for the above mentioned countries in their ranking:

CountryGHS RankinfectedCasualities D/index
Australia4        3,980 no data   
Finland10        1,239 no data   
Thailand6        1,388                7          0.50
Slovenia12           730              11          1.51
Canada5        5,655              61          1.08
Denmark8        2,564              72          2.81
Sweden7        3,700           110          2.97
South Corea9        9,583           152          1.59
Switzerland13     14,593           290          1.99
Netherlands3     10,923           772          7.07
UK2     19,758        1,228          6.22
USA1   124,763        2,191          1.76
France11     38,105        2,314          6.07
D/index inconsistent, for illustrative purposes only

Interestingly, these two instruments were developed by John Hopkins University.
After only a few days it became clear that the Global Health Index is a useless instrument. The first two, USA and UK, are hopelessly overstrained and apparently lack equipment and personnel. Also, it seems that the political leadership is only able to cope with this task to a limited extent. Why Thailand and Slovenia are listed in this illustrious society will probably be a mystery of John Hopkins University forever.
But also the on-line arc-gis presentation gives cause for criticism. The number of deaths per country is only meaningful if all countries put tested and infected persons in a ratio. Therefore, an index between tested and infected persons provides a better assessment of the disease and enable a better judgement of the death rate. This cumulative listing of infected and dead persons in this John Hopkins account is misleading and gives rise to false conclusions.